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AI buildout

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — The Memory Supercycle, Power Bottleneck, and Data Center Value Creation (Pt.3)

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — The Memory Supercycle, Power Bottleneck, and Data Center Value Creation (Pt.3)

The memory supercycle is no longer just about HBM. Multi-tier architectures are pulling conventional DRAM and NAND into the same structural shortage, while power and PCB bottlenecks are now compounding the constraint.

25 min read 29 Jun 2026

Soitec - Where Silicon Photonics Begins

27 min read 30 Apr 2026

Soitec - Where Silicon Photonics Begins

The near-monopoly on Photonics-SOI wafers that every leading silicon photonics foundry depends on as the starting material for AI’s optical interconnect boom.

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — Blackwell's Gauntlet, the ASIC Breakout, and the Optical Chokepoint (Pt.2)

21 min read 15 Apr 2026

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — Blackwell's Gauntlet, the ASIC Breakout, and the Optical Chokepoint (Pt.2)

Blackwell’s packaging, cooling, NVL72, and on-chip SFU bottlenecks exposed NVDA’s gauntlet — while Google’s AVGO-designed TPUv7 shattered the ASIC skepticism and the optical chokepoint tightened into 2025’s defining constraint.

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic - Where Scarcity Meets Capability in the AI Value Chain (Pt.1)

16 min read 10 Apr 2026

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic - Where Scarcity Meets Capability in the AI Value Chain (Pt.1)

The investment framework that separates signal from noise: where critical supply scarcity collides with AI’s exploding capability demand to create durable pricing power and mispriced opportunities across the value chain.

SysMoore & Energy (Pt.3.1) Nuclear Landscape

Nuclear Technology

20 min read 21 Feb 2026

SysMoore & Energy (Pt.3.1) Nuclear Landscape

The post-nuclear-winter global landscape: decades of underinvestment left the industry dormant just as AI’s insatiable power demand arrives, setting up the policy, supply-chain, and technology gaps that define the next decade’s nuclear investment thesis.

SysMoore & Energy (Pt.3)

13 min read 11 Feb 2026

SysMoore & Energy (Pt.3)

SysMoore’s hardware renaissance meets the energy wall — how AI compute’s explosive growth is forcing a fundamental rethink of power infrastructure, unlocking nuclear and natural gas tailwinds amid persistent buildout constraints.

Notes: AI Bubble? Refining the Forward ROIC

7 min read 17 Nov 2025

Notes: AI Bubble? Refining the Forward ROIC

Summary * The refined forward ROIC model focuses on Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, excluding Apple and Meta due to differing RPO dynamics and consumer-heavy business models. * Adjustments made are on boththe denominator (IC) numerator (return) side of ROIC to better align RPO with AI-related capex. * The revised model yields