Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — The Memory Supercycle, Power Bottleneck, and Data Center Value Creation (Pt.3)

ABBX Week 17 finds no broad AI bubble. Oracle is the test case: a USD 664 billion backlog, neo-cloud-like equity value, and a lease-and-capex bill that still lands before that backlog turns into cash.

Agentic AI is forcing SaaS down one of three routes: full replacement, headless survival, or owning the agentic layer. Part 1 maps the paths and scores 22 public SaaS names on our VAR-Resistance Scorecard — only two emerge as Agentic Compounders.

The July AI-infra correction separated disciplined portfolios from levered concentration. Our 3Q26 rebalance concludes with a clear principle: technical relevance is not enough. We exit weakened theses, favour bottleneck resolvers like Soitec, and size unproven optionality with discipline.