Notes: Light is the Future (Pt.2)
Summary
* The optical supply chain bottleneck into 2026 is EML capacity, with 200G EMLs (needed for 1.6T) far tighter than 100G and keeping pricing and allocations elevated.
* Silicon photonics is the short-term “release valve” for EML shortages by shifting more functionality onto PICs and using CW light sources, but it remains a partial substitute for the harshest 800G/1.6T AI link requirements.
* 800G demand remains robust (~40m units in 2026) but is increasingly viewed as transitional as
