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AI supply chain

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — The Memory Supercycle, Power Bottleneck, and Data Center Value Creation (Pt.3)

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — The Memory Supercycle, Power Bottleneck, and Data Center Value Creation (Pt.3)

The memory supercycle is no longer just about HBM. Multi-tier architectures are pulling conventional DRAM and NAND into the same structural shortage, while power and PCB bottlenecks are now compounding the constraint.

25 min read 29 Jun 2026

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — Blackwell's Gauntlet, the ASIC Breakout, and the Optical Chokepoint (Pt.2)

21 min read 15 Apr 2026

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — Blackwell's Gauntlet, the ASIC Breakout, and the Optical Chokepoint (Pt.2)

Blackwell’s packaging, cooling, NVL72, and on-chip SFU bottlenecks exposed NVDA’s gauntlet — while Google’s AVGO-designed TPUv7 shattered the ASIC skepticism and the optical chokepoint tightened into 2025’s defining constraint.

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic - Where Scarcity Meets Capability in the AI Value Chain (Pt.1)

16 min read 10 Apr 2026

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic - Where Scarcity Meets Capability in the AI Value Chain (Pt.1)

The investment framework that separates signal from noise: where critical supply scarcity collides with AI’s exploding capability demand to create durable pricing power and mispriced opportunities across the value chain.