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ROIC

Convequity's AI Bubble Barometer

Convequity's AI Bubble Barometer

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer shows AI valuations easing further this week while commercial demand for compute remains strong. Productive usage is still concentrated among developers, but is expected to broaden significantly as models improve and costs decline.

9 min read 14 Jun 2026

Notes: AI Bubble? Refining the Forward ROIC

7 min read 17 Nov 2025

Notes: AI Bubble? Refining the Forward ROIC

Summary * The refined forward ROIC model focuses on Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, excluding Apple and Meta due to differing RPO dynamics and consumer-heavy business models. * Adjustments made are on boththe denominator (IC) numerator (return) side of ROIC to better align RPO with AI-related capex. * The revised model yields

Beyond Operating Assets: Redefining ROIC for Tech Investors

15 min read 24 Jul 2025

Beyond Operating Assets: Redefining ROIC for Tech Investors

Summary * This project builds a capital‑allocator ROIC that judges how software CEOs deploy every dollar of capital, departing sharply from the traditional “operating‑asset” metric. * We expand invested capital to include goodwill, unrecognised SBC, cash + investments, purchase commitments, and non‑current deferred revenue, items that better reflect how software