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ABBX Week 17 finds no broad AI bubble. Oracle is the test case: a USD 664 billion backlog, neo-cloud-like equity value, and a lease-and-capex bill that still lands before that backlog turns into cash.
The AI Bubble That Isn’t — Yet: What the Completed Q2’26 Data Reveals
Q2’26 ABBX is complete. Parts of the AI market are hot, but the ecosystem is not yet a broad bubble: ROIC still exceeds funding costs, multiples remain below May, and demand is still broadening. The real heat is off-balance-sheet financing, not headline debt.
Notes: AI Bubble? Refining the Forward ROIC
Summary
* The refined forward ROIC model focuses on Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, excluding Apple and Meta due to differing RPO dynamics and consumer-heavy business models.
* Adjustments made are on boththe denominator (IC) numerator (return) side of ROIC to better align RPO with AI-related capex.
* The revised model yields