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AI Bubble

Convequity's AI Bubble Barometer

Convequity's AI Bubble Barometer

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer shows AI valuations easing further this week while commercial demand for compute remains strong. Productive usage is still concentrated among developers, but is expected to broaden significantly as models improve and costs decline.

9 min read 14 Jun 2026

Notes: AI Bubble? Refining the Forward ROIC

7 min read 17 Nov 2025

Notes: AI Bubble? Refining the Forward ROIC

Summary * The refined forward ROIC model focuses on Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, excluding Apple and Meta due to differing RPO dynamics and consumer-heavy business models. * Adjustments made are on boththe denominator (IC) numerator (return) side of ROIC to better align RPO with AI-related capex. * The revised model yields

Notes: AI Bubble? Spending, Risks, and Returns — A High-Level Assessment

24 min read 14 Nov 2025

Notes: AI Bubble? Spending, Risks, and Returns — A High-Level Assessment

Summary * Hyperscalers’ AI capex is soaring past historical limits, forcing creative financing and intensifying scrutiny over ROI and long-term sustainability. * Despite fears of an AI bubble, utilization remains high, demand is outpacing capex, and efficiency breakthroughs from Chinese labs are lowering compute costs while expanding practical use cases. * The