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ABBX Week 17: Oracle has the orders. It still has to pay for the build.

AI infrastructure

ABBX Week 17: Oracle’s Backlog Matches a Hyperscaler. Its Balance Sheet Does Not.

10 min · 14 Sep 2026

ABBX Week 17 finds no broad AI bubble. Oracle is the test case: a USD 664 billion backlog, neo-cloud-like equity value, and a lease-and-capex bill that still lands before that backlog turns into cash.

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The AI Bubble That Isn’t — Yet: What the Completed Q2’26 Data Reveals

The AI Bubble That Isn’t — Yet: What the Completed Q2’26 Data Reveals

Q2’26 ABBX is complete. Parts of the AI market are hot, but the ecosystem is not yet a broad bubble: ROIC still exceeds funding costs, multiples remain below May, and demand is still broadening. The real heat is off-balance-sheet financing, not headline debt.

10 min read 30 Aug 2026

Cerebras Is a Taxi. NVIDIA Runs the Bus Network (Pt1.)

14 min read 25 Aug 2026

Cerebras Is a Taxi. NVIDIA Runs the Bus Network (Pt1.)

Cerebras can generate tokens at extraordinary speed for a handful of users, but NVIDIA’s GPU architecture delivers superior economics at scale. This report explains why the fastest AI inference system does not necessarily make the best mass-market token factory — or the better investment.

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — The Memory Supercycle, Power Bottleneck, and Data Center Value Creation (Pt.3)

25 min read 29 Jun 2026

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — The Memory Supercycle, Power Bottleneck, and Data Center Value Creation (Pt.3)

The memory supercycle is no longer just about HBM. Multi-tier architectures are pulling conventional DRAM and NAND into the same structural shortage, while power and PCB bottlenecks are now compounding the constraint.