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The AI Bubble That Isn’t — Yet: What the Completed Q2’26 Data Reveals
Q2’26 ABBX is complete. Parts of the AI market are hot, but the ecosystem is not yet a broad bubble: ROIC still exceeds funding costs, multiples remain below May, and demand is still broadening. The real heat is off-balance-sheet financing, not headline debt.
Cerebras Is a Taxi. NVIDIA Runs the Bus Network (Pt1.)
Cerebras can generate tokens at extraordinary speed for a handful of users, but NVIDIA’s GPU architecture delivers superior economics at scale. This report explains why the fastest AI inference system does not necessarily make the best mass-market token factory — or the better investment.
Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic — The Memory Supercycle, Power Bottleneck, and Data Center Value Creation (Pt.3)
The memory supercycle is no longer just about HBM. Multi-tier architectures are pulling conventional DRAM and NAND into the same structural shortage, while power and PCB bottlenecks are now compounding the constraint.