ABBX Week 17: Oracle’s Backlog Matches a Hyperscaler. Its Balance Sheet Does Not.

Customers are redesigning around tight chips, memory, optics and power. We increased Cerebras to 1% and SPCX to 4%, and we trimmed Soitec to 3.5% and POET to 0.75%.

AI spending keeps growing, but the winners are changing. Our 4Q26 rebalance favors Broadcom over NVIDIA and backs suppliers enabling logic folding and optical integration. We also explore Tesla’s physical AI opportunity and the risks to TSMC’s long-term dominance.

Q2’26 ABBX is complete. Parts of the AI market are hot, but the ecosystem is not yet a broad bubble: ROIC still exceeds funding costs, multiples remain below May, and demand is still broadening. The real heat is off-balance-sheet financing, not headline debt.