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supply chains

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic - Where Scarcity Meets Capability in the AI Value Chain (Pt.1)

Notes: The Bottleneck Heuristic - Where Scarcity Meets Capability in the AI Value Chain (Pt.1)

The investment framework that separates signal from noise: where critical supply scarcity collides with AI’s exploding capability demand to create durable pricing power and mispriced opportunities across the value chain.

16 min read 10 Apr 2026

AI Value Chain Bottlenecks: Mapping Pricing Power and Investment Opportunity (Pt.1)

36 min read 02 Apr 2026

AI Value Chain Bottlenecks: Mapping Pricing Power and Investment Opportunity (Pt.1)

AI bottlenecks flow like a canal system of shifting dams — energy partially eased by natural gas and Bitcoin miner conversions, but pricing power now migrates downstream to data centers and optical interconnects, with a tailored Rule of X framework surfacing the winners.

Notes: Digesting the Uncertain Macro

10 min read 23 Mar 2025

Notes: Digesting the Uncertain Macro

Summary Trump’s policy mix is triggering near-term macro volatility but may ultimately lay the groundwork for a pro-growth, tech-friendly regime. Reshoring, deregulation, and fiscal tightening are redistributing value across the tech stack, favoring leaner, innovation-driven players. A more permissive FTC stance could reignite tech M&