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Notes: Convequity’s Lens on Software 3.0 Investing
Summary
* Software 3.0 mirrors the early internet era: AI is in an infrastructure-first phase where most value accrues to chips, data centers, power, and networking, while the true application winners largely do not yet exist.
* The public SaaS universe is structurally impaired, with slowing growth, high SBC, compressed multiples, and many companies “floating” below private-equity valuation floors without differentiated AI positioning.
* Legacy SaaS faces a scaling trap as per-seat models, c
Updates: Palo Alto Networks -From Platformization To AI-Native Security & Observability (Pt.1)
Summary
* PANW is well positioned for AI but still not treated as an “AI winner,” echoing broader concerns that incumbent SaaS platforms will be disrupted by AI-native challengers.
* 1Q26 shows platformization moving from slogan to reality: bigger, longer, multi-product and cross-platform deals, fatter back-end-loaded RPO, and NGS ARR nearing $6bn
Lumentum Holdings: The Optical Engine Behind the AI Data-Center Revolution
Summary
* Record 1Q26: $533.8m revenue (+58% YoY) with next-quarter guide $630–$670m; cloud/AI now >60% of mix, beating the $600m/quarter goal early.
* Growth is structural as hyperscalers shift from copper scale-up to optical scale-out, accelerating 800G/1.6T transceiver demand.
* LITE’s leadership in 200G-per-lane EMLs