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enterprise software

Jensen's Polite Warning: The Coming VARification of Software

Jensen's Polite Warning: The Coming VARification of Software

Jensen Huang politely predicted software companies will become "VARs of AI tokens" — a 90% valuation compression delivered with a smile. As AI collapses the cost of building and maintaining software, the industry's brain moves to the model labs, and everyone else fights over the limbs.

20 min read 30 Jul 2026

Notes: Convequity’s Lens on Software 3.0 Investing

26 min read 14 Jan 2026

Notes: Convequity’s Lens on Software 3.0 Investing

Summary * Software 3.0 mirrors the early internet era: AI is in an infrastructure-first phase where most value accrues to chips, data centers, power, and networking, while the true application winners largely do not yet exist. * The public SaaS universe is structurally impaired, with slowing growth, high SBC, compressed

Notes - When AI Meets SaaS: Disruption, Adaptation, and the Moat of Taste

28 min read 05 Oct 2025

Notes - When AI Meets SaaS: Disruption, Adaptation, and the Moat of Taste

Summary * AI threatens enterprise SaaS more than consumer apps, as agentic interfaces and in-house AI development erode seat-based pricing and standardized workflows while incumbents survive on backend depth, governance, and trust. * The “taste” factor—human intuition in design, vision, and product adoption—remains AI’s weakest area, protecting

Notes: Incumbents vs. AI-Natives: Who Wins the Next Software Cycle?

enterprise software

21 min read 25 Aug 2025

Notes: Incumbents vs. AI-Natives: Who Wins the Next Software Cycle?

Summary * The AI narrative has swung from favoring SaaS incumbents in 2024 to highlighting nimble AI-native startups in 2025, though incumbents remain unseated for now. * GPT-5’s incremental release underscored that AI progress may be more gradual than hyped, cooling expectations of dramatic disruption and leaving the field

Notes: Navigating the Shifting Sands: Is Enterprise Software Facing a Secular Sentiment Change?

enterprise software

19 min read 20 Aug 2025

Notes: Navigating the Shifting Sands: Is Enterprise Software Facing a Secular Sentiment Change?

Summary * Investor sentiment toward enterprise software is softening, raising the question of whether this is a temporary cyclical pause or the start of a secular shift. * AI-native startups are moving faster and capturing attention, while many SaaS incumbents struggle with organizational inertia that makes clean-slate innovation difficult. * Payback

Microsoft: Building The Cloud, Securing The Future - How Microsoft Leveraged Azure To Lead In Cybersecurity (Pt.2)

23 min read 18 Oct 2024

Microsoft: Building The Cloud, Securing The Future - How Microsoft Leveraged Azure To Lead In Cybersecurity (Pt.2)

Summary * In Part 1 we discussed how Microsoft transitioned to the cloud to make Azure an unlikely market leader. * In Part 2, we explore how Microsoft leveraged its on-prem Active Directory to create Azure AD, forming the foundation for its cybersecurity ecosystem and driving success in identity management. * Part

Valuation Analysis: Rule of X vs. Multiples

8 min read 19 Apr 2024

Valuation Analysis: Rule of X vs. Multiples

Summary * Reports on Confluent, Rubrik's IPO, and Match Group are on the way. * In this short report we share simple relative valuation analysis using the Rule of X. In a previous post we mentioned we're replacing much of our Rule of 40 analysis with the Rule