Notes: Incumbents vs. AI-Natives: Who Wins the Next Software Cycle?
Summary
* The AI narrative has swung from favoring SaaS incumbents in 2024 to highlighting nimble AI-native startups in 2025, though incumbents remain unseated for now.
* GPT-5’s incremental release underscored that AI progress may be more gradual than hyped, cooling expectations of dramatic disruption and leaving the field more open to startups.
* Startups like Cursor, Replit, and Windsurf are scaling revenue with remarkable efficiency, showing how clean-slate architectures and talent densi
